Professor: If the house price suddenly declines more people to suffer
2006-06-25 08:56:03 Source:
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If we don't think it is the same, it will have a major change in the short term. We have reason to think that it is the same as the big and straight fall in the face of the housing prices. It is difficult to unless he is currently a non-affordable person.
If the price is plummeted, then 3.51 trillion and real estate related financing, the 1.02 trillion may transform into a non-performing asset, which is a rough short-term scenario simulation, and has not revealed the long-term financial risks. Even so, we can also realize that regardless of the government's work report from Tempal, it is still from "National Eight Articles" to "Six Articles", its main purpose is generally the optimization of housing supply structure, and the prices have risen. So why still have such a raging emotion expecting plummeted?
Let us return to the origin of things. The emotions that look forward to the sharp decline may be caused by three factors. One is the price of most people, the second is how to define the rationality and irrationality of the rise in housing prices, and the sensibility is less reasonable; the three is that most people may think that the financial risk caused by the inertial fluctuations of housing prices is not related. Can hang high high.
First, is the price expensive? This requires an investment ratio. For this indicator, there is always controversial, focusing concentrates on the difference between the median and the average. Simply, assume that there are 101 housing and 101 households, then the average price of 101 housing is divided by 101, the median price of the house is to raise the 101 housing according to the market value from high to low, row The 51st market value of the housing. The concept of family average income and median income is also similar to this.
Generally speaking, the larger the income of residents' income, the average number is completely disappeared with the difference between the neutral number of the neutrality of the rich and the poor. Developers always say that in terms of international practice, China's median housing prices are only 5-6 times, and scholars generally believe that the average rate revenue is more than 10 times. We use Zhejiang and Beijing's data, and the average market value of urban residential housing is 30% higher than that of the medium-border market value. The average income is 20% higher than the median income, so the median house price income ratio and average The difference between the rate income ratio is only about 8.3%.
The average price income ratio of the new house in the eastern region may be calculated. In 2005, the average price of commercial housing in the eastern region was 3,943 yuan per square meter, with a per capita residential area of 3.16 households, 1.67 households' employment population, and urban residents were averaged, and the new housing of urban residents. The price revenue is far more than 10 times. Considering that approximately 70% of households have fallen below average income, there is no doubt that most urban residents do not have the ability to purchase new homes, and whether the housing prices are almost ridiculous. This is also a psychological basis for the low- and low income class.
Second, housing prices have rumored or rational? When trying to tell the rationality of the price trend, the relative rational reference must be established. There are three groups of reference materials with housing prices --- China GDP growth rate, urban residents can dominate the growth rate and changes in the resident consumption price index.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual growth rate of GDP in 1999-2005 is 8.64%, of which the growth rate of GDP is around 10% after 2003; the annual growth rate of urban residents is 10.83%, Among them, the income growth in 2001 is more than 11% per year. In the past six years, the accumulation of consumer prices has been too insignificant.
In contrast, from 1999 to 2005, the annual average annual increase of commercial housing prices was about 4.5%, and the annual average increase of residential prices was about 4.6%, and the annual average increase of housing leases was 5.6%; in 2004, commercial housing and residential prices began Right rise. Almost at this time, increasingly hot house prices have enabled people's complaints and even condemnation of developers. Third, is it unrelated to housing prices? Unfortunately, many people think that the housing prices have nothing to do, the facts are not.
A Chinese financial security has never involved the interests of thousands of households. The main source of funds in the banking system is residential savings, so a secondary bank is bankrupt because of the felling of house prices, it is enough to affect the interests of at least 10 million savings. It is difficult to imagine that if the real estate is a honesty, it will be beneficial to the public interest.
Er will have no resources other than taxation and debt, and various policy costs are all shared by the public. I have calculated that the direct cost of the three-year state-owned enterprises is approximately 2.4 trillion, and the laid-off workers who have been bought out of the work will not think that "three years of getting off" is an initiative that is unrelated to their personal interests. Who can mention any A regulatory policy, which is eventually not borne by the company or the national?
Third, whether it is a purchase of houses or not buyers, there is no exception to this "real estate movement", 48% of China's urban residents' family property is characterized by the market value of its residential.
There is no difference in market value plunge and property evaporation. Therefore, when a person has no bank savings, there is no such thing as an owner of property ownership, there is no such thing as a housing reform house, he can take rollies.
At this point, we must admit that one is expensive, and the second is expensive to exceed the capacity of most people. The third is that the house price has been inheritively excited since 2004. But ironically, from January 2002, the vacant area of the national commercial housing is only fluctuated between 122 million to 143 million square meters.
We have to further ask two questions, one is if you have enough money, what will I buy? Second, if most people can't afford to buy a house, who bought these rooms?
Calm down, most people may admit that if he has enough money, he will choose to buy a house. At present, most people are angry in the commercial housing, the root causes in the income, so I hope that the sensibility of housing prices plummeted, and the sensibility of the expectation of the income is no different. Most people think that the housing prices have soared more dreams.
This aspiration reveals the first factor that promotes the virtual price of China's real estate price is a high-speed monetization process. Statistics show that the average monetary wages of China's urban employees in 1980, the monthly salary of 1992 and 2004 is 63.5 yuan, 226 yuan and 1335 yuan, so official data is approximately five times the employee currency salary. The actual situation may be higher than this, assuming that you have a monthly income level of 4,000 yuan, I have a considerable grasp, you may only be 400 yuan and 40 yuan in 1994 and 1982, or the urban employee currency income Add 10 times every 12 years. To date, China's generalized currency M2 / GDP is as high as 185%, probably the world's premiere.
Fortunately, the production capacity of China's manufacturing industry has exceeded the expansion of each caliper money supply, so that China is survived by malignant inflation. However, commercial housing cannot be as large as refrigerator color TV, before China takes a more restrained monetary policy, the housing price is unable to curb, and the purchase fact is that the residents are harmful to the harmfulness.
Let us look back, the price is not reasonable, not only the results of the developer manipulation, but also the result of the buyers' swarm. Who bought a commercial housing that most people can't afford?
This contrast shows the second factor that promotes the virtual price of China's real estate prices, namely the social income distribution.
Social Sciences began to launch long-term tracking surveys in 1988, in 1988, in 1995, the Academy of Household survey was launched in 1988, in 2002, the results show that the total number of people in the country has received total social income in 2002. 6.1%, the highest 5% of the population received nearly 20% of total revenue, and the highest 10% of the group gain 32% of total revenue. Most institutions have shown that the income of Chinese residents increased rapidly from 0.33 in 1980, since 1994 began to break through 0.4 international warning lines, in recent years, the national wealth has been concentrated in high-income groups. Therefore, the problem of housing prices is inherently income distribution, 70% of urban residents look at the house, and it will inevitably lin on the remaining 30% of the first rich people to buy houses. If the housing demand in the high-income class can be solved by the market order, what should I do if the low- and low income? At this time, the government's posture is extremely important. According to the investment type structure of commercial housing, the proportion of national economic applications accounting for real estate investment has gradually landslide, and the proportion of 6.13%, 4.61%, and 3.86% in the past three years, in low-rent housing construction Since today, there are still more than 70 prefecture-level countries that have not launched low-rent housing.
This stagnation shows the third factor that promotes the virtual price of China's real estate prices, that is, the housing demand for low-income people is not satisfied.
I have never tried to use a rough rate of vacation to estimate, and it will be able to draw the real estate industry or not to conclusions such as China Banking. I also stubbornly believe that with those who have been dismantled from the farmers, it is almost not worth mentioning in the city. In the face of logic and data, researchers need truth. If we don't think it is innocent, China's monetization process, the income distribution pattern and the guarantee of the low-income people have a major change in the short-term future; we have reason to think that it is the same as that of the housing price. At the uncle, few people can be scared, unless he is currently a non-affordable person.
The author is a professor of Beijing Normal University.
(Source: Southern Weekend)